Changes in the natural gas market pattern

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19, the global natural gas market has been characterized by changes in supply and demand, violent price fluctuations, and continuous growth in trade volume. Han Qingmei, a natural gas analyst at jinlianchuang, believes that in the post epidemic era, natural gas will be more important for the feasibility, economy, sustainability and safety of decarbonization of the global energy system. The epidemic has had a certain impact on the supply and demand of the global natural gas market. In terms of supply, according to the monitoring of jinlianchuang, the international natural gas market experienced both oversupply and shortage from 2020 to 2021. The Ukrainian crisis in 2022 promoted the diversification of natural gas market supply in downstream consumer countries. In terms of demand, according to IGU data, the spread of the epidemic in 2020 reduced the level of world economic activity, and global natural gas demand fell by 2%. However, the economic rebound in 2021 and extreme cold weather in some parts increased natural gas demand by 4% year-on-year. "Despite the obvious impact of the epidemic on the global energy system, the reliability and flexibility of natural gas have been verified by the market. On the one hand, it has guaranteed the demand of key social sectors such as electricity, water supply, medical equipment manufacturing, food production, etc. on the other hand, the supply of natural gas has also adapted to the sudden changes in demand caused by the differences in the time and place of the epidemic." Han Qingmei said. Global natural gas prices fluctuated violently during the epidemic. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the natural gas prices of the three major natural gas centers (the Dutch natural gas trading agency TTF, Henry hub in the United States and the Japan South Korea LNG spot trading market) fell to record lows. According to rystadenergy data quoted by IGU, TTF natural gas price fell to $1.2 per megawatt in 2020. In 2021, with the acceleration of global economic activities and the growth of natural gas market demand, Asian spot and TTF natural gas prices reached record highs. In 2022, the crisis in Ukraine exacerbated the tight supply of natural gas market, and the price of natural gas soared rapidly. As of July 15, 2022, the spot prices of LNG, TTF and HH in Northeast Asia were $39.049/million British thermal, $47.171/million British thermal and $6.605/million British thermal respectively, with year-on-year increases of 194.13%, 304.83% and 79.19%.